UFC 311 -- Expert picks, best bets for Makhachev vs. Moicano - ESPN

ESPN's No.1 pound-for-pound fighter headlines the first UFC pay-per-view of the year Saturday, as lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Renato Moicano in the main event of UFC 311 (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/FX/Disney+/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m on FX/Disney+/ESPN+). Moicano stepped up on late notice when original opponent Arman Tsarukyan was forced to withdraw with a back injury on Friday.

Makhachev, who has held the title since October 2022, is going for his fourth consecutive title defense. Most recently, he beat Dustin Poirier by fifth-round submission at UFC 302 last June. Moicano, No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a four-fight winning streak. He beat Benoît Saint Denis in his last fight in September.

The co-main event is also a title fight, as men's bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili makes his first defense against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.

Andreas Hale spoke to ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event and to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his thoughts on the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the title fights and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Makhachev Wins: Rinse and repeat. Fight smart. Makhachev doesn't take a lot of chances but he will stay in your face and force mistakes. He will have to remain calm, like he always does, fight a good southpaw fight, secure some takedowns and wear on Moicano. He may be able to earn a submission late in the fight.

How Moicano Wins: Moicano needs to be the better grappler to win the fight. Even