UFC 279: What is Nate Diaz's path to success against Khamzat Chimaev?

Nate Diaz returns to the Octagon, for what could be his last appearance in the UFC, when he takes on Khamzat Chimaev in the UFC 279 main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).

Diaz, an MMA legend who has 26 fights with the promotion, has earned a reputation for putting on a show in his fights. He is tied for the second-most fight night bonuses in the UFC with 15. He enters the fight coming off of back-to-back losses.

Chimaev, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's welterweight rankings, has won five fights in a row since making his UFC debut in 2020. His last bout ended in a unanimous decision win over Gilbert Burns in April.

Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC welterweight Belal Muhammad to get his perspective on the matchup. Muhammad is No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Chimaev wins: Stick to the script — come out fast and hard and use that explosiveness. Diaz is mostly a counter striker. He does badly against bigger, stronger guys. Even Leon Edwards, whom I wouldn't consider one of the biggest welterweights, used distance on the outside and took Diaz down whenever he wanted. If I'm Chimaev, I don't play the brawling game. I'd take him down right away. Diaz is one of those guys who will give up bad positions. So, I would get wrist control and try to finish Diaz on the mat with ground-and-pound.

Chimaev can't get in his own way. In his fight against Burns, his coaches were yelling at him