Trump vs Harris: Who is leading in the US presidential election polls?

On 5 November, US citizens will head to the polls to choose their next president in what has been a tense and dramatic race.

In late July, incumbent US President Joe Biden dropped his 2024 bid after weeks of pressure following a disastrous debate performance and increasing questions over his health.

Instead, Biden backed his vice president, setting the stage for a Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris matchup.

So who is in the lead, and who is predicted to win?

According to the latest national polling averages gathered by Euronews, the race just keeps getting tighter.

Since October, Trump has been surging in all of America’s swing states.

Among the seven most critical swing states, Harris and Trump are polling within one point of each other in five, per FiveThirtyEight polling models. Only Georgia and Arizona fall outside of the one-percent margin, with Trump building leads of closer to 2% — both states that swung for Joe Biden in 2020.

National polls are also showing a tightening in the race, with more polls consistently falling within the traditional 3% margin of error in recent weeks.

Still, Harris holds a consistent advantage nationally, including in polling conducted by America’s most accurate pollster in recent elections, TIPP. TIPP’s latest poll, released on Wednesday, shows Harris gaining a point on Trump for a four-point lead nationally. TIPP is only one of two major pollsters that accurately predict the outcomes of the elections in both 2016 and 2020.

Our Euronews Polls Average model currently places Harris ahead nationally by 2.2%.

Looking back at previous elections, Democrats have reason to be nervous about how close the race currently stands.

In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton, the Democrat held a lead between