Tiers for all 30 NBA teams: Real contenders to play-in dreamers - ESPN

A month into the NBA season, dividing lines are beginning to take shape in both conferences. Although there is still a surprising leader in the East (the Detroit Pistons, who look like they have the defensive chops to stay in the mix), the rest of the top five teams in net rating are now the contenders we expected.

Meanwhile, a bottom tier has separated itself, with fans and executives alike dreaming of snagging a top prospect in what looks like a strong 2026 NBA draft.

In between is where the real interest lies as teams jockey for home-court advantage in the playoffs and to make — or avoid — the play-in tournament. All season long, ESPN's Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton will be sorting the NBA's 30 teams into tiers based on their outlook for success at the end of the regular season and beyond.

Jump to a tier:
The Favorite to Repeat
Legit Title Contenders
Conference Finals Party Crashers
Prospective Contenders Stuck in Neutral
The Muddled Middle
Play-in Dreamers
Barren for Darryn

Oklahoma City Thunder (13-1)

Jalen Williams hasn't played this season, while Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have missed at least four games apiece. The Thunder have been cold from deep, making just 34% of their 3-point attempts to rank 21st in the league.

And yet, the 2024-25 champs are still on pace for a 76-6 record as they mount a title defense, with a league-best plus-15.4 point differential that's even better than their record-setting mark last season. Oklahoma City has the NBA's best defense by a whopping 6.6 points per 100 possessions; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is essentially replicating last season's stat line, which won him an MVP award; and Holmgren appears to be making an offensive leap, averaging a