This ‘tipping point’ would be catastrophic for Europe but scientists aren't sure when we'll reach it

Scientists have successfully modelled a climate tipping point that would plunge large parts of Europe into a deep freeze - and it could be closer than previously thought.

Using a complex climate model, researchers from Utrecht University in the Netherlands simulated the collapse of an important Atlantic Ocean current which currently brings warm water north and keeps temperatures in Europe mild.

An abrupt shutdown of this current would change weather worldwide with Europe suffering the most severe consequences. Melting ice sheets could cause its collapse - but when or how likely is it to happen?

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important system of ocean currents. It transports warm water, carbon and nutrients north via the Atlantic Ocean where the water cools and sinks into the deep.

The AMOC helps to distribute energy around the planet, moving heat through the ocean like a conveyor belt and regulating our climate.

Warm water - more salty due to evaporation - flows north on the surface of the ocean keeping Europe milder than it would otherwise be. When this water cools it sinks because its high salinity increases its density. It then flows back to the southern hemisphere along the bottom of the ocean.

But studies of past episodes of dramatic cooling in Europe over the last 100,000 years suggest melting ice sheets could weaken the AMOC due to changes in salinity and temperature.

Fresh water reduces the saltiness - and therefore the density of the water- on the surface of the ocean. This means less of the surface water sinks, potentially slowing the flow of the current.

Some research has suggested that climate change may be slowing the flow of the current. One study from 2023 based on sea surface