The X factors that will shape the 2023 MLB trade deadline - ESPN

It was about this time last year that a survey of club executives around the league first forecast that the Nationals might choose to deal Juan Soto, and Washington general manager Mike Rizzo responded with ardent denials. «We are not trading Juan Soto,» Rizzo said in a radio interview. «We made it clear to his agent and to the player.… We have every intention of building this team around Juan Soto, and we've spoken to his agent many, many times.

»I guess the rest of the world doesn't believe it, but that's our position."

Two months later, Soto was wearing a Padres uniform.

So what are some of those same execs seeing in this year's early trade market conditions? We asked and they answered, offering some hard opinions on the X factors that loom.

1. Where will the biggest chips emerge?

In recent seasons, several real difference-makers have been swapped before the deadline, from Manny Machado in 2018 to Soto and Josh Hader in 2022. But some execs don't see a lot of significant help shaking free this summer, partly because the likely sellers' rosters are — to put it mildly — really, really bad. «You look at a team like [Oakland],» said one front-office type. «Who on that roster is going to be a difference-maker?»

The Athletics and Cincinnati Reds have already flipped their most expensive major league talent for prospects. The Royals have some young players attractive to rival execs, but are expected to keep the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino and Brady Singer. The Royals' Brad Keller is generally viewed as an intriguing talent, but given his continuing struggles, a lot of contenders would likely view him as more of a lottery ticket than a highly valued asset — especially since he'll be a free agent in the