Talking Horses: new Gambling Act in danger of miscalculating the stakes

The Royal Statistical Society published the results of an interesting survey of MPs last week, having asked 101 of the people who make our laws a fairly basic question about probability: if you toss the same coin twice, what are the chances that it will be heads both times? Forty-eight per cent of them got it wrong.

To be fair to our current crop of MPs, that was an improvement on the result when the society conducted a similar survey a decade ago and 40% got it right. The performance of Labour MPs has definitely improved, from 23% getting it right 10 years ago to 53% – 1% in front of the Tories – this time around. But even so, the results reflect quite poorly on the basic numeracy of our elected representatives.

It would be interesting to see the results if 101 racing punters were asked to calculate the return on a £10 win double on two even-money shots, which is a different way of phrasing exactly the same question. This is, of course, pure speculation, but my money would be on rather more than 52% of the punters knowing that the double is 3-1 against, and that they would be looking at £40 back.

But it is the MPs, a fair chunk of whom apparently lack even the faintest grasp of chance and probability, who will soon be considering, amending and ultimately approving a new Gambling Act, which will determine how and even, in some scenarios, whether the rest of us can continue to bet on racing and other sports as we choose.

Lingfield 

1.00 Stanley Pincombe1.35 Cousu Main2.10 Echo Watt2.45 Our Bill’s Aunt3.20 Shaman Du Berlais3.55 Shot Boii4.30 Dolphin Square

Ayr 

1.20 Bonny Houxty 1.55 The Flier Begley2.30 Caboy 3.05 Ardera Cross3.40 Ned Tanner (nb)4.15 Just Don’t Know 4.50 Time For Hollie

Newcastle 

4.08 Misscarlet 4.40