Super Bowl LX: Key one-on-one matchups for Seahawks-Patriots - ESPN

Two weeks is a long, long time to game-plan an NFL game. It's also a long time to think about the game plan when you're on the outside looking in.

I've had (almost) two weeks to think about the matchups that will define Super Bowl LX. How will the Patriots try to cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba? How might the Seahawks attempt to block Milton Williams? But I've also had time to wonder whether individual matchups really do define Super Bowls. Are these big game-plan-heavy days really decided by one-on-one showdowns — even as important as those individual players might be to their teams' success?

Probably not. From the outside looking in, we like to distill the unbelievably complex NFL discussions into easily digestible matchups. Will Christian Gonzalez cover Smith-Njigba perfectly for 100% of their matchups? Nope. So will Smith-Njigba win 100% of the routes? Nope. The Patriots are hoping to get it to 60-40 and then have that other 40% won by the pass rush or dumb luck (or just limited to shorter routes). The Seahawks, meanwhile, are hoping for their own 60-40, and to win the remaining 40% with AJ Barner, a scramble or some more dumb luck.

When we talk matchups in the NFL, we are rarely talking about game-winning individuals. Instead, we're talking about feathers on a scale. Winning these matchups creates small tips in one direction. The point isn't that a single matchup wins the whole game but rather that every matchup can contribute to the outcome.

Of course, I don't think you'd read «84 matchups that could define the Super Bowl.» So I whittled it down to five — the five heaviest feathers on the scale that will decide Seahawks-Patriots. And I even predicted which way that scale will tip at the bottom.

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