Stock Watch: Where teams stand ahead of MLB's winter meetings - ESPN

To say that much has changed since the World Series would be correct, but the landscape around MLB hasn't so much shifted since the Dodgers danced at Yankee Stadium as it has been thrown into limbo. That's the nature of the offseason: a chunk of the talent pool around the game enters free agency, the rumor mill lights up with tantalizing possibilities about the trade market, and we wait for stuff to happen.

Some stuff has already happened, and with MLB's annual winter meetings set to kick off in Texas this weekend, expect plenty more in the days to come, probably including the biggest domino of the offseason: Juan Soto. Soto's decision — like all moves, big or small — will change everything, because every win gained by one team is a loss that must be accounted for elsewhere in the league.

This edition of Stock Watch is meant to take a snapshot of where things stand as we await Soto and the rest of the upcoming moves. Consider this edition through the lens of «if the season began tomorrow,» which suggests a bizarre reality in which Soto, Corbin Burnes and the other top free agents are left without teams.

We will also compare these in-the-moment assessments against what we'll call the «Run it Back» forecast. That's the projection of how each team would be expected to do if it simply brought back all of its players. Players are still forecasted for 2025 and injury returnees reappear on depth charts, but they remain with the organizations they were with when the 2024 season ended. This will offer us both a sense of where we've gone since the World Series and where teams need to go from here.

Win average: 100.3 (Run it back: 98.8, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.4% (Run it back: 96.1%)
Champions: 24.4% (Run it back: 21.6%)

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