Six Nations fate is up in the air as England bid to deny France grand slam

If you look at the England team Eddie Jones has picked to face France, it does not take an expert to work out that the ball is going to see a lot of air time on Saturday. What fascinates me, however, is how different both sides’ approaches are to kicking and whichever side can impose their particular style will go a long way towards winning the contest.

Jones has picked George Furbank at full-back, which may have come as a surprise to some because he had a difficult time on his debut at the Stade de France two years ago and because Freddie Steward is so reliable under the high ball. France, however, really don’t kick to compete that much. They kick long, they want to lure their opponents into running the ball back, when they back themselves to turn the ball over, or they want to engage in a game of kick tennis, when they can be lethal if their opponents do not execute properly. As a result, Furbank’s decision-making will be key, and significantly more important than his ability to claim the ball in the air.

To illustrate, Stuart Hogg carried the ball 14 times in Scotland’s defeat by France. For those carries he made only 14 metres post-contact, which tells me that a lot of the problem was bad decision-making. The problem, though, is that France have scored seven of their 14 tries from receiving kicks, which hints at why Hogg would have been reluctant to kick deep. The key, then, is for England to make good decisions and execute their contestable kicks.

Throughout the tournament, from 37 box-kicks or up-and-unders on their ball France have retained only one. Of the 45 that they’ve received, they’ve failed to gather one in four. That tells me that they are vulnerable in the air if England contest and clearly Jones has