Setting The Pick: Celtics-Heat Series Outlook

The Miami Heat have only won 2-of-12 quarters this series yet lead 2-1.

They opened Game 3 with a 39-18 first quarter and never relinquished the lead. In Game 1, they clawed back in the third quarter with a 22-2 run on the backs of their smothering defence.

To Boston’s credit, for large stretches, they’ve looked like the more skilled and athletic team, but they’ve also shown their inexperience.

24 Boston turnovers – that was the key Game 3 stat. The Heat had a 19-2 advantage in the steals department.

When you have such a drastic possession disparity, it’s near impossible to overcome.

Is the over/under line too low?

My main bet for Game 3 was the over at 207 and to be frank, it was an undeserving cover.

While the game flow was on pace through three quarters, in the fourth, possessions slowed down and the defence really tightened up for both teams.

Had the Celtics not rained in three triples to close the game leading to a 20-point final minute, it was destined to be the first under of the series. Instead, Boston and Miami have now hit three overs in a row.

On multiple occasions, I’ve highlighted how these two teams were first and second in defensive rating in the Eastern Conference. Naturally, you’d assume unders every game, right?

The problem is, 207 (the highest total so far in this series) is still below Boston and Miami’s combined points allowed per game. During the regular season, they allowed the NBA’s first and fourth-least points per game (104.5 and 105.5 opponent ppg) – 210.

These overs aren’t a knock on their defences, the lines are simply lower than they should be.

For reference, over the course of the 2021-22 playoffs, the average game total has been 213.8.

Series thoughts through three games

The constant