SEC Nine-Game Conference Schedule Is Going To Change A Lot

As part of the discussion around College Football Playoff expansion, the SEC has reportedly been discussing adjusting their conference schedules. For years, most power conferences have played nine conference games, while the SEC has played eight. 

Those days seemingly might be coming to an end. And it's going to have massive repercussions for the conference, and for college football at large.

Despite having eight conference games, the SEC has traditionally played difficult schedules. Because of the quality of the eight in-conference matchups, some programs choosing to play difficult out-of-conference games, and the general strength of the top teams.

But nine raises a whole host of new questions. With answers that might actually hurt the SEC in playoff discussions moving forward.

Greg Sankey is discussing the changes the need to be made to the College Football Playoff seeding format. (Credit: Getty Images)

The most obvious implication of moving to nine conference games is the almost certain impact to win and loss records. 

Take the example of the 2024 Ole Miss Rebels.

Ole Miss scheduled Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern for its four out of conference games. Shockingly, they went 4-0. Wake Forest was the closest game by margin of victory, and it finished 40-6.

Ole Miss entered those four games, especially outside of Wake Forest, with 99.9% win expectancy. Replace one of those games with an SEC conference game, and that win expectancy drops, even as a favorite, to more in the 60-70% range. The problem with that is if you're 60% to win, you lose 40% of the time.

Sure enough, the Rebels went 5-3 in the SEC. Including losses to LSU and Florida, both of whom finished the year unranked. And