Rating NFL's four most improved teams by 2023 playoff chances - ESPN

Let's break down what has gone right (and wrong) for the four NFL teams that have seen their 2023 postseason chances improve most dramatically. I'll be getting help from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projected each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs before the season and has done so again after each ensuing week.

Three of these four teams — each of which is 5-2 — are from the AFC, which shouldn't be a surprise, because the NFC has basically been chalk so far. Think about the preseason expectations there. The Cowboys and Eagles were going to be the class of the NFC East. The 49ers and Seahawks were the two best teams in the NFC West. The NFC South was going to be a chaotic mess, and the Lions were expected to leap past the Vikings after Minnesota's luck from a year ago in close games ran out.

Through seven games, that's basically what has happened. There are three teams within a half-game of one another in the South, and the teams most everyone expected to stand out in the NFC are doing so in reality. Before the season, the FPI projected the Eagles, Lions, Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks and Falcons to be the seven playoff teams in the NFC. And after seven weeks, the FPI… projects the same seven teams to make it to the postseason out of the NFC.

There have been more dramatic shifts in the AFC, which is why three of our four biggest risers reside there. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, the Bengals off to a slow start, the Titans seemingly ready to give up and rebuild and the Chargers in a 12-round battle against themselves every week, the FPI has a different vision on that side of the playoff bracket. It starts with a team that finally appears set to win its first playoff game since 2000:

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