Projecting top five NFL rookie leaders by stat categories - ESPN

It has been nearly a month since the 2024 NFL draft, and we now have a much better grasp of what each team's roster core will look like this season. That means we can start to project expectations for this year's batch of rookies.

First-year players tend to experience a learning curve, but we will see plenty of standouts right out of the gate. Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? How many yards should we expect to see from this year's crop of first-round QBs led by Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye? What are reasonable expectations for running back Jonathon Brooks as he recovers from a torn ACL? And who will pace all rookies in tackles and sacks?

Let's take a look at the top five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of categories for the 2024 season. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role).

And for full statistical outlooks, you can check out this handy PDF or head over to our projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. Both are updated often leading up to the start of the season.

Jump to:
Passing | Rushing | Receiving | TDs
Tackles | Interceptions | Sacks

1. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 3,532 yards, 23 TDs (15 starts)
2. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: 3,527 yards, 19 TDs (14 starts)
3. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 3,457 yards, 16 TDs (15 starts)
4. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 3,378 yards, 17 TDs (15 starts)
5. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 3,165 yards, 16 TDs (14 starts)

Barring injury, Williams (the No. 1 overall draft pick), Daniels (second), Maye (third), McCarthy