Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 10 - ESPN

The more things change, the more… Ohio State remains the same.

There were some Week 10 surprises, but not at the top, where defending national champion Ohio State should start the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday right where it left off last season — at No. 1. Although there could be some debate over the top spot when the 12 members of this year's group vote on teams for their first official top 25 ranking of the season, the bigger discussion will likely revolve around one-loss Alabama and undefeated Texas A&M for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots.

How far do the two-loss Canes fall after their loss at SMU, and how high can two-loss Notre Dame rise? Can Texas Tech make its debut in the CFP top 25? Was Vandy's moment in the field fleeting after its loss to Texas?

Here's a prediction of what the selection committee will do on Tuesday night when it reveals its first of six rankings (8 p.m. ET/ESPN) — the season's first true baseline of the playoff pecking order.

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Why they could be here: Ohio State has been one of the most consistently complete teams, and that season-opening win against Texas will continue to boost the Buckeyes. The Longhorns' win against Vanderbilt on Saturday helped both their playoff hopes and Ohio State's résumé. Ohio State also has road wins against Washington and Illinois, two of the Big Ten's better teams. Ohio State hasn't allowed a team more than 16 points this season. The Buckeyes entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Saturday's lopsided win against a Penn State team that remains winless in conference play won't wow anyone in the room, but it will continue to enhance the