Premiership semi-finals: home bankers or more knockout surprises?

Welcome to The Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly (and free) rugby union newsletter. Here’s an extract from this week’s edition. To receive the full version every Tuesday, just pop your email in below:

Sometimes it is worth remembering how swiftly things can change, in club rugby as well as politics. This time a year ago, for example, fourth-placed Harlequins were still seen as distant long shots to win the Gallagher Premiership, only 10,000 could watch the final because of Covid-19 and the United Rugby Championship, containing South Africa’s top sides, had yet to be launched.

Who could have foreseen that Quins, in particular, would be crowned champions when Bristol took a 28-0 lead in their semi-final? Or even that Exeter Chiefs, 31-26 up entering the last furlong, would be pipped at the last? Or that neither Bristol nor Exeter would make this current season’s top six, with once-mighty Bath finishing stone-cold bottom?

It is almost as if rugby union is trying to mirror the changing climate: more extreme episodes than back in the day, sudden departures from the traditional orthodoxy, a new normal materialising in real time. Which is why this year’s knockout stages, across Europe, are not as easy to call as they might otherwise be.

Most available logic, for example, points to a Leicester v Saracens Premiership final and has done so for months. The Tigers have assembled the most unyielding pack in the league while Saracens, from Owen Farrell downwards, still have a steely conviction in their own ability. The tough edge that has propelled them to the top two after nine relentless months should, by rights, be enough to see off Northampton and Quins respectively on Saturday.

But hang on. Look at the stats and they scream