Premier League 2022-23 preview No 17: Southampton

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 17th (NB: this is not necessarily Michael Butler’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 15th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 500-1

When Southampton are good, they are a top-half Premier League team. And when they are bad, they are relegation-grade fodder. Since Ralph Hasenhüttl pitched up in late 2018, the problem is that you never know which version you’re going to get. Unfortunately, that’s about the most exciting bit about being a Southampton fan right now.

After failing to replace Danny Ings at the start of last season, Southampton took 10 matches to win their first game, and finished the campaign with a worse goal difference (-24) than relegated Burnley, with only a prosperous period in February keeping the club above the drop zone.

Transfers have been wayward for a while – the idea of Saints having a player good enough to sell to Liverpool these days seems a little far-fetched. This summer’s transfer policy of paying more than £23m for Manchester City academy players seems a little risky until you remember the success of both Tino Livramento and Armando Broja (from Chelsea) last season. If Southampton do one thing well, it’s spot a good youngster. It’s the rest of the recruitment you have to worry about.

Much depends on the fitness and form of captain James Ward-Prowse – top scorer (11 goals) and creator in chief (eight assists) last year – as well as whether they can find a goalscorer. Broja has gone back to Chelsea, Che Adams has had a mixed time while Adam Armstrong has failed to fill Danny Ings’ shoes after the latter left for Aston Villa a year ago.

“After spending time with Hasenhüttl, I can say I really like him and he’s