Predicting which MLB teams will return to playoffs in 2024 - ESPN

Recently, we ranked the six 2023 MLB playoff teams that could be in trouble this year. Now, let's examine the clubs most likely to reach the postseason in 2024 after missing out last season.

There's a wide variety to this group: typical playoff contenders who saw major debacles lead to down seasons in 2023, squads that just narrowly missed out last year (some of whose fates came down to the final days of the season) and others who are newly on the rise.

Once again, we'll go off the historical trend of about half of playoff teams getting turned over from year to year — so six of 12. Using my colleague Bradford Doolittle's most recent playoff odds, let's rank the top six candidates to join this year's postseason party and get into why they will, or won't, be playing baseball come October.

Doolittle's playoff odds: 60.1%

When understanding why the Yankees fare so well in their playoff odds, it's important to understand how projection systems work. Players receive projected statistical lines and estimated playing time, with playing time based both on a player's injury history and their role on the team. Thousands of season simulations are run to arrive at a median win-loss record and the resulting playoff odds.

In general, any projection system is rather conservative in its outputs: Players who had great seasons are expected to regress; players coming off bad seasons might be expected to improve. Young players get better; old players get older. What helps the Yankees is that they have three superstar players in Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole: These are among the few players so good that they aren't expected to regress. This gives the Yankees a high floor of top-level value. Throw in a likely-to-improve Anthony