Offensive teams have the edge heading into NHL playoffs

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The National Hockey League is experiencing an offensive renaissance. Goaltenders are struggling as offences are scoring at levels not seen in decades, and it’s not stemming from an increase in power-play opportunities.

This evolution has drawn a lot of attention in recent weeks, with most wondering when it would taper. After all, we are talking about a league that’s been notoriously low-scoring and goaltender-dominated for years.

We are also talking about the regular season, where most teams play a conservative brand of hockey, more willing to chase three-point games than aggressive regulation wins. So, each year we’re used to watching a short-term increase in offensive production give way to a very defensive, entrenched style of hockey as playoff races tighten.

But this season has been quite different. It’s been the offensively dominant teams that have made their way to the top of the standings (the Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, et al.), while the offensively weak teams have drilled their way to the bottom (San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, Arizona Coyotes, et al.).

Most of the high-end offensive teams are dominating possession time and the shot clock. Consequently, offensive metrics like shot volumes and expected goal volumes are correlating stronger with wins and losses than ever before:

We have known for some time that teams that possess the puck, win the shot clock, and generate their shots from dangerous areas of the offensive zone are generally playoff contenders. What’s interesting is the strength of that relationship is increasing with time. Teams this season (and one could argue the past two seasons, though temporary divisional realignment due to the COVID-19