Nielsen's Gracenote predicts US to win third straight World Cup

The United States are favourites to win the Women's World Cup but their bid for a third straight title faces a strong challenge from Europe's top sides as well as co-hosts Australia, according to Nielsen's Gracenote.

The Americans' chances of claiming their fifth victory overall are only 18 per cent. Sweden, Germany, France and England are the main contenders, with a 58 per cent chance the winner will come from this quintet.

Gracenote's forecast, based on approximately one million simulations of the tournament, gave Olympic silver medallists and third-ranked Sweden the second best chance of winning (11 per cent).

"Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament," said Gracenote's head of analysis Simon Gleave.

"There is a strong challenge to champions and favourites USA from Europe and Australia's home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition."

Germany (11 per cent), France (9 per cent), European champions England (8 per cent), Spain (8 per cent), Australia (8 per cent), Brazil (7 per cent) and reigning Olympic champions Canada (6 per cent) round out the favourites.

The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia in that order, while the most likely semi-finalists are the U.S., Sweden, Germany and France.

The most likely World Cup final is U.S. v Germany at just under 6 per cent, with the U.S. v France, England, Australia and Brazil - in that order - rounding out the top five most likely finals.