NHL’s top power plays driving scoring to new heights

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are a bona fide Stanley Cup contender. The St. Louis Blues have played to a 112-point pace since Dec. 1, positioning themselves for another postseason bid. The Edmonton Oilers are fighting for their playoff lives.

Three teams, three very different circumstances. But one thing ties these three clubs together: they all have blistering power-play units.

The National Hockey League has seen a bit of a scoring revolution this season when it comes to the power play, but it’s not the result of additional opportunities. Teams are seeing about 2.9 power-play opportunities per game, which is down from the 10-year average (3.1).

At first, I suspected early-season volatility was at play – a combination of serious shooting luck and goaltending weakness conspiring to create a surge in scoring that would invariably abate over time. After all, we have seen that in any number of regular seasons prior.

But that regression back towards league averages hasn’t happened this time around. It’s a fascinating shift, and one that’s not being driven by the breadth of the NHL. Instead, the league’s most potent power plays have remained a cut above the rest, and that’s driven league-wide scoring on the man advantage to higher levels.

Let’s first look at the league averages to frame this appropriately. This shows the statistical modern era (2007-22). On both a rate goal scoring and expected rate goal scoring basis, we are looking at a 15-year high.

One thing this serves to illustrate is that this change didn’t happen overnight. As more scoring talent has been injected into the league, and as teams have modified their strategy and tactics to be more offensively accommodating, scoring has increased.

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