NFL wild-card playoff upset keys: How underdogs can win - ESPN

The wild-card round of the NFL playoffs always has surprise winners. In January 2024, the Texans rolled the Browns as 2.5-point underdogs. The Packers edged the Cowboys despite Dallas being expected to win by more than a touchdown. And the Buccaneers shocked the Eagles, even though Philadelphia was favored on the road. It happens every season.

Could we see more upsets this weekend? Let's map out paths to victory for the underdogs.

For each matchup, we pointed to two game-planning keys that could tip the scales and put Super Bowl contenders on early upset watch. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Here's how each underdog can win and move onto the divisional round of the playoffs. (Game projections are via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and lines are from ESPN BET.)

Jump to an underdog:
GB | LAR | PIT | WSH

Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
FPI projection: BUF, 68.1% by an average of 7.1 points
ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)

1. Steal from the Lions' offensive game plan.

Everyone borrows in the NFL, and if I were the Broncos, I'd look very closely at the Lions' offensive tape from Week 15 (48-42 loss to Buffalo). In that matchup, Jared Goff had seven completions of 15 or more yards against the zone-heavy Bills defense. Detroit schemed open windows off dropbacks and play-action all afternoon. And I see a lot of similarities here with Sean Payton's system and the Broncos' route tree.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has a 93.8 QBR on throws of 15 or more air yards to the middle of the field (inside the numbers), and that sets up well versus a Bills defense that played zone coverage on 68.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, fifth most in the NFL. Denver