NFL Week 9 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (+155 at ESPN BET)

Yes, he has thrown only one interception. But he's still a rookie quarterback playing in what is expected to be a close game. And sometimes, picks just happen. My model suggests the fair over price is +121. So while the under should be favored, it believes the over is a value at the price offered.

See also:

Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+115)

Baker Mayfield under 22.5 completions (-102)

I'm rolling out a new completions model this week, and it projects Mayfield to record just 20.5 completions. A simple but big factor: Mayfield's below-average completion percentage (64%), which ranks 22nd among quarterbacks despite a slightly below average air yards per attempt.

See also:

Daniel Jones over 19.5 completions (-102)

Lamar Jackson under 34.5 pass attempts (-114)

Even under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens still drop back to pass at a below-average rate. And when they do, no QB scrambles more often than Jackson (12% of the time), which takes away some attempts. And the Ravens are also decent-sized favorites, so there's a chance they end up going quite run heavy.

D'Andre Swift under 2.5 receptions (+115)

There's no model