NFL Week 8 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+102)

The Giants are a blitz-heavy man coverage defense under Wink Martindale, and I think that suits Wilson based on some stark splits. Wilson has recorded a 59 QBR vs. man and 18 vs. zone and a 60 QBR vs. the blitz and 30 vs. non-blitz this season. I sometimes think splits like that can be just noise, but the man/zone splits extend back to last season, too. Plus, the Jets are favored — only the fifth time Wilson has been favored in a game as a starter — and that means they are less likely to be in desperate passing situations that yield interceptions. I price this at -115.

Sam Howell under 34.5 pass attempts (-117)

This is a situation where you might feel tempted to take the over no matter what. The Commanders figure to be losing to the Eagles, and if they fall behind, they're going to need Howell to pass. But sometimes the number is just too high, and that's what my model says here, putting Howell at just 30.0 pass attempts on average. Believe it or not, one factor is that he takes so many sacks — meaning a lower percentage of his dropbacks actually end up as pass attempts.

Atlanta Falcons D/ST Anytime Touchdown (+800 at Draftkings)

Let's put it