NFL Week 10 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

Lamar Jackson under 0.5 interceptions (-122 at ESPN BET)

Jackson has thrown a pick on just 1% of his dropbacks this season, the second-lowest rate in the league only behind C.J. Stroud. While the Browns have an excellent defense, they are weaker against the run and that makes me think Baltimore might lean more into its ground game Sunday. Plus, the Ravens are favored and that helps: if they are ahead Jackson will have to take fewer risks. I make the fair price -134.

See also:

Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+107)

Will Levis under 19.5 completions (-122)

I'm way under here, and that's based primary on two factors:

1. The Titans have been a run-first team (25th in deigned pass rate) and I don't see any reason why that should change.
2. Levis is a rookie, and most rookies don't play particularly well in the first few games of their career. Levis is off to a solid start, but with a low completion percentage.

My number is 15.2 which is probably too far off the line but I think directionally correct.

Jared Goff over 33.5 pass attempts (-114)

If there's one thing we know about the Chargers, it's that you can pass on them. And that's exactly what I suspect Jared Goff and the Lions will do.