NFL Week 6 last-minute bets - Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+104)

This bet has burned me a few times this year, but I'm coming to it. The reasoning remains similar: the Chargers are going to throw the ball quite a bit, and while Herbert has a knack for avoiding picks each one of those throws is a risk. This time, though, we have something else working for us: the Cowboys' defense.

See also: Kirk Cousins over 0.5 interceptions (+114)

Kirk Cousins over 33.5 passing attempts (-115)

The Vikings have the second-highest designed pass rate in the league, at 72%, only behind the Chiefs. It's not just a game-situation thing: even if we only look at when the win probability is between 15-85%, they still rank third (69%) in the category. The Vikings are only light favorites in Chicago, so I think it's fair to guess — even without Justin Jefferson — that Cousins will just keep passing.

See also: Ryan Tannehill under 30.5 pass attempts (-132)

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST anytime touchdown (+600 at DraftKings)

A beat-up Jets offensive line trying to protect Zach Wilson? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Eagles' defense is the beneficiary, and I make the fair price here for a defensive or special teams score +444. If I'm