NFL Week 3 last minute bets - Best values on props, picks, and more - ESPN

Sunday's kickoff is around the corner, and there's one thing left to do: Place some last-minute bets. If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (-125)

Stroud has done well to avoid throwing a pick thus far this year. But he's still a rookie QB playing as an underdog, and the Jaguars' run defense has been really strong, so Houston will have to throw. The fair price here is -137.

Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+118)

Chargers-Vikings is going to be a shootout. But that also means a lot of pass attempts. Herbert is throwing farther downfield this year under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (8.5 air yards per attempt this season compared to 6.3 last year) and that increases the chances of throwing a pick. This is a huge disagreement with the line: I have the number at -126.

See also:

Ryan Tannehill under 0.5 interceptions (-103)

Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+146)

Dallas Cowboys D/ST Touchdown (+450 at FanDuel)

This is as good of a D/ST touchdown situation as you can imagine. The best defense in football as a heavy favorite going against Josh Dobbs and the Arizona Cardinals offense. I have this as a massive 21.5% chance of happening at +365.

New England Patriots D/ST Touchdown