NFL Week 5 last-minute bets - Best values on props, picks, and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions (-115)

Even though Jones' very high 3.5% interception rate this season will certainly come down (it was a league-low 0.9% last year), the reality is that the Giants probably will fall behind the potent Dolphins offense and will need Jones to put the ball in the air. That's when a pick is likely to come. I make the fair price -133.

Russell Wilson over 29.5 pass attempts (-130)

The Broncos have had the eighth-highest designed pass rate in the NFL so far. Part of that is situation, but they aren't run-heavy: even if we look only when win probability is between 15-85%, they are 16th in designed pass rate. The Broncos are just narrow favorites, so we don't really have game-script issues to worry about. Ultimately the model is way higher here, projecting 33.5 attempts.

See also:

Baltimore Ravens D/ST anytime touchdown (+850 at FanDuel)

The model makes the fair price +687, but I think there's two pieces of information outside its purview that works in this bet's favor. First: Kenny Pickett has had three dropped interceptions this season, the second-most in the NFL this season. That's on top of his four actual interceptions. Second: the Ravens are tied with