NFL Week 2 last minute bets - Best values on props, picks, and more - ESPN

Sunday's kickoff is around the corner, and there's one thing left to do: Place some last-minute bets. If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbooks unless otherwise noted.

Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+152)

If I asked you: In how many of Zach Wilson's career starts did he throw an interception, what would you say? The answer: 50%. Yes, as poorly as Wilson's career has gone, he's avoided picks in half of his games. It just doesn't seem like it because when he throws picks, they come in bunches. My model makes the fair price +127.

Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions (+152)

In order to justify this kind of line, the Giants would need to be heavy favorites, and Jones would need to be elite at interception avoidance. The Giants are only 4.5-point favorites, and while Jones had just a 1.1% pick rate last year, it was by far a career-best.

See also:

Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions (-101)

Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+108)

Chargers D/ST Touchdown (+700 at DraftKings)

Being a favorite increases the chance of a defensive touchdown, because it forces opponents into taking more risks if they fall behind. But another factor is also at play here: I found that man coverage defenses score more touchdowns (perhaps because of schematics or perhaps