NFL Week 4 last minute bets - Best values on props, picks, and more - ESPN

Sunday's kickoff is around the corner, and there's one thing left to do: Place some last-minute bets. If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Desmond Ridder over 0.5 interceptions (+143)

Arthur Smith is apparently allergic to passing the ball, but this is one matchup they might have to, because the Jaguars rank third in EPA allowed per designed run (and it helps the Falcons are light underdogs, too). I don't have much confidence in Ridder, who currently ranks 29th in QBR, when he is asked to throw the ball. My model makes the fair price here +114.

See also:

Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 interceptions (+126)
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (+213)

Justin Fields under 28.5 pass attempts (-125)

Breaking out a new model this week that I may tinker with going forward: pass attempts. It looks mostly in line with this week's props but one take it has is the under on Fields' passing attempts. The model projects just 25.1 for the Bears QB. The spread here is only +3.5, so Chicago may avoid desperation passing mode and even when they do have Fields dropback to pass, his sack and scramble rates are so high that it reduces his passing volume.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST Touchdown (+600 at DraftKings)

This is as good of a D/ST touchdown situation