NFL Week 15 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks, buzz - ESPN

It's Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, and if you're looking for some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

Let's dive in, starting with a potential matchup advantage for Patrick Mahomes.

Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Will Patrick Mahomes take deep shots against the Browns' single-high coverage?

Opponents using two-high coverage to stop Mahomes from throwing downfield was once a frequent talking point. In general it makes sense, as just 8% of dropbacks against two-high coverage result in 20-plus air yard pass attempts, compared to 11% against single-high coverage. But the trend hasn't played out for Mahomes this season. He has thrown 20-plus air yards on 7% of attempts against both two-high and single-high coverage.

This is the week where Mahomes can revert to his past strength. Cleveland plays two-high coverage at the lowest rate of any team (28% of the time), and it leads the league in yards allowed per reception (12.8). He should take a shot when he gets the chance.

Can Calais Campbell cause enough disruption to help Miami defeat Houston?

Campbell has seemingly found the fountain of youth as a