NFL Week 1 betting analysis, best plays for Sunday afternoon's games - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space — find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 1.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Solak's plays | Walder's props | Bowen's Game of the Week

Here's what I'm focused on and what is driving my bets this week:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals total points UNDER 50.5 (-112)

Two of the league's worst defenses from last season meet in their first gut check after offseason rehabilitation. The Bengals (30th in defensive DVOA last year, per FTN Fantasy) made splashier moves, adding DT Dexter Lawrence II, DE Boye Mafe and S Bryan Cook. The Buccaneers, who were closer to average (18th in DVOA), reimagined the linebacker room with Alex Anzalone, Josiah Trotter and added to the pass rush with rookie LB Rueben Bain Jr., DT Calijah Kancey (back from injury) and LB David Walker (back from injury) in hopes of improving a pass defense that was 27th in dropback success rate allowed.

• Three bets for every team