NFL playoff picture: Sizing up 1-seed races after Week 16 - ESPN

How can the 2025 NFL season be so settled and unsettled at the same time?

With two full weeks to go, the identities of 12 of the league's 14 playoff teams are basically sorted, including all of the wild-card teams. After losses by the Colts in Week 15 and the Lions in Week 16, it would take something truly extraordinary for those teams to climb back into the playoff picture. The only real races left for playoff berths are in the AFC North and NFC South, where the principals will all meet in Week 18 rematches.

The seeding within and particularly at the top of those AFC and NFC brackets, though, is chaotic. The Broncos and Rams came into Week 16 as the top seeds in their respective conferences. They both left the week with losses. The Broncos are still narrowly atop the AFC, but their grip on a potential top seed and sense of invincibility have weakened after their 11-game win streak was snapped Sunday.

Things are much worse for the Rams, who had seemed to have some sort of psychic hold on Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. Despite leading 30-14 with the ball and 9:39 to go, L.A. couldn't put Seattle away Thursday night. The Seahawks forced overtime and won the game on a gutsy (and thoughtful) 2-point conversion, shifting the balance of power in the NFC.

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Now, the Seahawks are the top seed in the conference. A Rams team that looked to be spending January at home in a dome might instead be traveling next month to play in the same uncomfortable conditions that ended their 2024 postseason in Philadelphia. If the 49ers win against Philip Rivers and the Colts on «Monday Night Football,» the Rams will fall all the way to the sixth spot.

Let's touch on the race for those top seeds in both