NFL playoff picture: Keys for nine teams needing Week 18 wins - ESPN

There's still a lot on the line in Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season for the playoff race. The Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are battling for the final AFC wild-card spot. The Ravens and Steelers are vying for the AFC North title. The Bucs and Falcons have the NFC South (and the playoffs) at stake. And the Lions and Vikings are facing off for the NFC North and top seed in the conference.

Not all of those teams control their own destiny, but all nine could use a Week 18 win to at least keep their clinching hopes alive. So we mapped out how each team can get it done.

Here is one big game-plan key to victory for all nine franchises. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, clinching scenarios and chances to do so from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) are detailed below for each team. We grouped teams by each of the four races, and then stacked them within each race by FPI chance to win it. Let's start with the three-team hunt for the seventh seed in the AFC.

Jump to a race and team:
AFC wild card: CIN | DEN | MIA
AFC North: BAL | PIT
NFC 1-seed: DET | MIN
NFC South: ATL | TB

Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 64%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie OR Bengals and Dolphins both lose/tie

Key to victory: Bring man pressure vs. Chiefs QB Carson Wentz

With Chiefs coach Andy Reid announcing that Patrick Mahomes will sit this weekend, Wentz is set to get the ball against the Broncos' defense. And I expect Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to turn up the heat on Wentz, while using his coverage talent on the perimeter — Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss — to challenge Kansas City's wide receivers.

In the head-to-head matchup back in