NFL conference title odds tend to bring out heightened high-roller interest. Caesars Sports found that out almost immediately this week.
On Monday, a Caesars Palace big bettor plopped $1.3 million on Kansas City Chiefs moneyline -130, for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills. If Kansas City just wins the game — regardless of margin — then the bettor locks down a $1 million win, for a total payout of $2.3 million.
To most of us casual observers, a bet that size is shocking. But not to Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel, especially when considering this specific matchup at this specific time of year.
"It’s no surprise that it’s on the Chiefs. If you look at the precedent the past couple years, the Chiefs have beaten the Bills in this spot," Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Bills-Chiefs and Commanders-Eagles, as we dive into NFL Conference Championship betting.
When It Matters Most
Since the 2020 regular season, the Bills and Chiefs — and therefore, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — have met eight times. That series is tied 4-4, but as Feazel alluded to, not all wins are created equal.
Buffalo’s four victories all came in the regular season. Conversely, three of Kansas City’s wins came in the playoffs, when it really mattered.
In the 2020-21 AFC Championship Game, K.C. won 38-20 at home.
Then came the fantastic finish in the 2021-22 divisional round, again at Arrowhead Stadium. Allen led the Bills to a touchdown that put them up 36-33 with just 13 seconds left. But Mahomes and the Chiefs quickly responded with a field goal to tie it at 36, and K.C. won 42-36 in overtime.
In last season’s divisional round, the Bills were finally at home vs. the Chiefs.
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