NFL odds, best bets: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings - ESPN

The Minnesota Vikings make passing difficult, allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt and four passing touchdowns all season. James Cook III gives the Buffalo Bills an answer. Minnesota allows running backs 3.8 yards per carry before halftime and 5.3 after.

Buffalo already uses multiple tight ends and heavy formations, so it can keep testing that front without forcing Josh Allen into playing hero ball. Allen's legs also give the Bills another option when the pass coverage holds up.

Minnesota's problem is getting enough offense to help its defense. Nearly 60% of its sets of downs reach third down. Buffalo allows just 3.9 yards per carry, putting more responsibility on the quarterback. With Carson Wentz starting, Justin Jefferson becomes especially interesting. Jefferson averages 87.6 receiving yards with Wentz, and Buffalo has allowed 10 of its 15 passing touchdowns after halftime. Minnesota's best opening could come late.

I lean with the Bills covering the short road spread. Minnesota's pass defense deserves respect, but Buffalo can work through Cook and Allen running the ball instead of repeatedly challenging that coverage.

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Buffalo's 33-point scoring average meets a defense allowing a league-low 1.18 points per drive. Something has to give, and I expect Minnesota to bring Buffalo below its usual output. The Vikings barely convert more than half their red zone possessions into touchdowns, so asking them to make up the difference on the full-game total feels optimistic, although the number has dropped.

That's why I like the first half to go under 22.5 points. With the Vikings' defense against backs starting strong and fading late in