May 29, 2025 - 09:49
By espn.com

NFL Football Power Index: 2025 projections, Super Bowl chances - ESPN

The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX — but just barely, with a cluster of teams close to the reigning champs in terms of ability and chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That's according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) — our football ratings and projection model — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.

The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl according to the model, the lowest chance the preseason favorite has had to win it all since the model began outputting preseason projections in 2015.

In the preseason, FPI's overall predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.

Ratings evolve as we learn more about each team based on its performance on offense, defense and special teams — accounting for opponent — along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials. Let's dive into our 2025 forecast and our biggest takeaways.

The NFL's 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills. These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there's a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked