Apr 21, 2026 - 14:11
By espn.com

NFL Draft Day Predictor 2026: Forecasting picks, trades, more - ESPN

The game within the game of the NFL draft is forecasting how it will unfold. Teams build internal models to help figure out when they need to pick a player and how far forward — or back — they can trade. For us, it means using ESPN's Draft Day Predictor to figure out the fuller draft picture before it plays out — and of course, to power our mock draft simulator.

But what is the Draft Day Predictor? It's a model that uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict the full range of selection outcomes for top prospects. The accuracy of those measures in past drafts informs the model's outputs for this upcoming draft. The model updates throughout the draft process as mock drafts and grades are updated. It also updates live during the draft as the picks come in — which means if a player starts to fall, users can see how likely he is to reach their team.

So let's probabilistically break down some storylines ahead of this year's NFL draft using the Draft Day Predictor's latest values. Will Ohio State really have four players drafted in the top 10? How far up will the Cowboys have to move to get a premier defender? And where will consensus No. 2 quarterback Ty Simpson be selected? We get into all of that, plus an analytical look at 40-yard dash times vs. play speed and what it means for this class of receivers.

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Yes, it's possible. The Draft Day Predictor says Simpson has a 43% chance to be available at pick No. 33, the start of the second round. If the Alabama quarterback were to be selected Thursday, the most