NFL Draft Day Predictor 2025: Forecasting Round 1 picks - ESPN

Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game. Instead of filling out mock drafts, NFL teams opt to build models that help them predict how the draft could unfold. After draft week is over, some teams will even reveal the internal probabilities they had for players to fall to certain spots and how that influenced their decision-making.

At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects. The accuracy of those factors in past seasons informs the model's outputs for the upcoming draft.

Our model is updated throughout the predraft process and even live during the draft, which kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Using the latest outputs from the Draft Day Predictor, let's try to answer some of the draft's burning questions… probabilistically. Where are Shedeur Sanders and Ashton Jeanty most likely to land? How might the quarterbacks and wide receivers come off the board, and which sleepers have the best shot at sneaking into Round 1?

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With Miami's Cam Ward the favorite to go No. 1, Sanders presents a very interesting forecast in our model as the second-best quarterback in the class. The predictor has cooled on the idea of the Colorado QB at Nos. 2 or 3 (currently the Browns and Giants, respectively), but those options are still possible; there is a 4% chance he'll go No. 2 and a 7% chance he'll go No. 3. Of course, the Browns and Giants need long-term quarterbacks, but the Draft Day Predictor also includes the possibility of a team trading up for Sanders in one of those two spots.

Sanders' chances