NFL draft 2023 - Projected order for top 10 picks, including where Jets, Bears, Steelers, others could land

We're almost a year from the 2023 NFL draft, and 285 games lie ahead that will determine the draft order. Anything can happen. We won't know what the top 10 will look like until the end of Week 18 this season, and even then, things can change with pre-draft trades up or down the board.

Even so, we projected how the draft order might play out in those first 10 picks using our ESPN Football Power Index, which gives each team's expected draft slot. An analytics writer pulls back the curtain on the numbers to explain why each team is projected to have an early selection, while our NFL Nation reporters dive in on how each of the teams can outperform these expectations and avoid a disappointing season.

Which teams are destined for a top draft pick? Where might the Jaguars — who have held the No. 1 pick in each of the past two years — land? And which teams could surprise in 2022? Let's take a closer look at teams currently headed toward another early Round 1 selection.

Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.6%Chance at top 10: 68.4%

Why they are here: You can see the upside with the Jets. They have Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at receiver. Ahmad Gardner and D.J. Reed are set to lock down the cornerback spots. Carl Lawson is back at edge rusher. And most importantly, they have a potential star in second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. But none of that — most importantly Wilson — is guaranteed to pay off. ESPN's FPI is betting that most of it likely won't. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Between free agency and the draft, the Jets added playmaking potential on both sides of the ball, most notably with Wilson, Gardner, Reed, running back Breece Hall and safety Jordan Whitehead. Improved team speed should allow them