NFL divisional round last-minute bets: best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend's props.

Let's start with defense, since that's where we've had success this year.

Odds by ESPN BET.

Justin Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-125)

Madubuike has burned me on this exact bet plenty of times year, but I'm sticking to my convictions. He has had an incredible season with 13.0 sacks, but his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle — below the 10% average at the position — suggests his sack rate is unsustainable. I price the under at -282, which is probably underrating his chances due to all the simulated pressure Baltimore draws up in its defensive scheme, which helps pass-rushers. But directionally I feel confident: Madubuike is overrated by this price.

George Karlaftis (KC) under 0.5 sacks (-175)

The biggest factor we've talked about in this space all season is that the opposing quarterback is a significant driver in any sack forecasts. And that matters a ton right here: no one — not even Patrick Mahomes — was better at sack avoidance than Josh Allen, with a league-low 3.7% sack rate and 12.3% sack-to-pressure rate. Karlaftis might have had 10.5 sacks this season, but he also had only a 10% pass rush win rate at edge — 42nd out of 51 qualifiers at the position. I make the fair price -210.

See also:

Kenny Clark (GB) under 0.5 sacks (-230)

Aidan Hutchinson (DET) under 0.5 sacks (+150)

Nick