2024 Super Bowl last-minute bets -- props, picks, more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into some last-minute Super Bowl props.

Odds by ESPN BET.

This is the «field» option, so we're betting on it being something other than: holding (+275), false start (+325), offside/encroachment/neutral zone infraction (+325), defensive pass interference (+800), delay of game (+1500), offensive pass interference (+2000) or no accepted penalties (+5000).

That leaves a lot for field, though! Think: roughing the passer, intentional grounding, too many men on the field, facemasks, unsportsmanlike conduct...and many more. These «other» penalties made up 30% of accepted penalties across the league this year and 29% for these two teams. Even though some are special teams penalties (and thus less likely to be first), I still think this is the value pick. Plus: Bill Vinovich's games had the lowest offensive holding rate (the favorite) of any referee this year. He won't have his whole crew with him for the Super Bowl, but the referee himself plays a role in holding calls.

I want to be fading sacks in this game, with Patrick Mahomes being one of the very best quarterbacks at avoiding sacks (3.7% sack rate) and Brock Purdy better than average and a good chance neither team pulls out way ahead. Sadly, most of the value has been sapped from this prop: it was -130 as recently as Wednesday. I make it -162 so there's still a little left, as far