NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Will Miami stay hot against Buffalo? - ESPN

What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 4? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?

Betting analysts Eric Moody,Tyler Fulghum andSeth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.

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Moody: Miami has the most explosive offense in the league, ranking first in total yards and points. While the Dolphins are fun to watch, they've lost nine of their past 10 games against the Bills, including the playoffs. It's important for Buffalo to make a statement, especially because many people think its championship window is closed. With an average time to throw of 2.2 seconds, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in that department, but the Bills' defensive front ranks third in pass rush win rate. Buffalo will cover the spread here in what Vegas expects to be a close game.

Fulghum: This is a hard game to handicap. I don't have a strong conviction on the side as I think either team could win the game. In that case, sometimes I think it's just a wise bet to take the ML underdog. In this case, it's far from uncomfortable to back the Dolphins given what they've shown this season. If forced to pick a side, that's what I'd do.

Walder: According to FPI, yes. We make Miami's chances to win it all a whopping 29% — but I would caution on that number. The model does tend to be a bit jumpy early in the season and it falls fast for teams. That being said, the Dolphins were my preseason Super Bowl pick so, yeah, I'm pretty far in. It's expensive given how much competition there is in the AFC