NFL betting odds, picks, tips: How to bet the conference championship games - ESPN

What is worth betting in Sunday's pair of NFL conference championship games?

Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder andAaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts and help you make smart wagering decisions.

Note: Odds by ESPN BET.

Schatz: I expect the Chiefs to have some success moving the ball on the Ravens' defense, even though Baltimore ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA during the regular season. There's no question that Patrick Mahomes has always played at his best in the postseason. The question is more about how well his teammates will play. Can Marquez Valdes-Scantling hold onto the deep ball? Can Travis Kelce get that open when he's covered by Kyle Hamilton or Roquan Smith instead of backup Bills linebackers? The Chiefs were probably a little underrated this year, but the Ravens were a juggernaut: fifth all-time in regular-season DVOA, with seven wins of 14 or more points against teams with winning records. A Ravens win is far from a guarantee, but even with the Mahomes Magic, I think this line is too low and I'm happy to go with Ravens -3.5.

Fulghum: Listen, sometimes in sports you just have to say, «I Know Better.» I am a person who firmly stands by the process of trusting mathematics and numbers to guide us to the most probable predictive guess. The DVOA numbers for this Ravens team are literally historically good. They're objectively an elite team in all three phases. However, I Know Better than to bet against Patrick Mahomes when he is being given points, especially if I'm being afforded more than a field goal. Chiefs +4.0 is the play (I am even comfortable betting Kansas City on the money line +170) because Mahomes is inevitable. He has won eight of the 11 games he's played in the NFL as