New AI tool that can predict death could be a game-changer for prolonging heart patients’ lives

An artificial intelligence (AI) tool to help doctors identify high-risk heart patients will soon be rolled out on a trial basis in England after a study found it can accurately predict the risk that someone will die in the years after a heart scan.

The global research team led by Imperial College London trained their AI model, known as AI-ECG risk estimation or AIRE, on millions of results from electrocardiograms (ECG), a common medical test that records electrical signals within and between the heart’s chambers. It is typically used to diagnose heart attacks and other irregularities.

The goal was to identify nuanced patterns that could mean someone is at high risk of health problems or death.

Put to the test, the model predicted the likelihood of death in the decade following an ECG – and it was correct 78 per cent of the time.

“We believe this could have major benefits for the NHS, and globally,” Dr Fu Siong Ng, a cardiac electrophysiology researcher at Imperial College London who worked on the project, said in a statement.

The system can also predict heart attacks, heart failure, and heart rhythm problems, and the researchers said it could be rolled out across the National Health Service (NHS) within the next five years.

Trials using real patients are already planned for several sites in London and are expected to begin by mid-2025.

They will evaluate the benefits of the model using patients from outpatient clinics and hospital medical wards.

AI-powered ECGs have already been used to diagnose heart diseases, but they are not part of routine medical care and have not yet been used to identify a specific patient’s risk levels.

“This could take the use of ECGs beyond what has previously been possible, by helping assess risk of