NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s - ESPN

All four NBA conference semifinals are underway after a turbulent first round that featured three Game 7s, two massive upsets and some key injuries.

With eight teams left vying for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, it's a perfect opportunity to take stock of the field as it currently stands and rank those contenders on their likelihood to come away with the hardware when the postseason is all said and done.

Here's our take, with the case for and against each of the eight teams as the second round is now one game in across the board.

(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy ESPN Analytics.)

First round: Defeated PHX 4-0
Conf. semis: Lead LAL 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 48.8%

The case for:

How about championship experience, depth for days, a ferocious defense, the likely two-time MVP and home-court advantage throughout the rest of the playoffs? OKC is the best-positioned team since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18 to chase a repeat title. The Thunder can play big, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein up front. They can play small, with a menacing fleet of guards wreaking havoc in half-court defense and in transition when they force turnovers. And they have a coach in Mark Daigneault who isn't afraid to experiment with lineups throughout a playoff series.

The case against:

That 7-foot-4 game-plan wrecker Victor Wembanyama and his teammates down Interstate 35. San Antonio won four of five meetings with OKC this season, showcasing a length and athleticism that can give the Thunder problems. But if OKC can survive a San Antonio matchup — the potential of a heavyweight West finals took a small hit when the Spurs dropped Game 1 on Monday against the Timberwolves — nothing outside of catastrophic injury luck should stand in the way