NBA betting: Why Nikola Jokic is the only bet to make for MVP - ESPN

I'm not saying Nikola Jokic will win MVP.

I'm not even saying Jokic should be favored to win. After all, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an MVP-worthy season. SGA is leading the NBA in scoring and second in steals while leading the team with the best record in the Western Conference. That's legit.

What I am saying, is that if you are going to make a bet on NBA MVP at this point in the season, betting on Jokic for MVP is the only option that makes sense.

According to ESPN BET, Gilgeous-Alexander is -700 to win MVP while Jokic is +400. Those are «done deal» odds, with SGA as the runway favorite to win. Odds of -700 mean that one would have to bet seven units to win one. There is no upside to making a bet with odds that short, with little return on investment for a bet that won't be paid out for almost two months. Meanwhile, +400 is great value for a player with a legitimate chance to win.

So the question we need to ask is; does Jokic still have a legitimate chance to win? Let's explore.

Jokic has been the best player in the league for the past five seasons by a significant margin. In the four seasons prior to this one, these have been Jokic's finishes in the MVP vote:

2020-21: Jokic first (91 first place votes), Joel Embiid second (one first place vote)
2021-22: Jokic first (65 first place votes), Embiid second (26 first place votes)
2022-23: Embiid first (73 first place votes), Jokic second (15 first place votes)
2023-24: Jokic first (79 first place votes), Gilgeous-Alexander second (15 first place votes)

Jokic joins Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and LeBron James as the only players in NBA history to win three MVP awards in any four-season span. Michael Jordan, for whom