NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's in, who's on the bubble, who must win

The biggest concern of those fighting for a playoff spot in the NASCAR Cup Series is that a driver who isn't remotely in the mix vaults into the playoffs with an upset victory.

Hello, Austin Dillon

Dillon, who was 32nd in the standings entering Richmond, put himself in the playoffs with a victory — albeit a controversial one — on Sunday, the 23rd race of the 26-race regular season.

Following Richmond, three races remain to set the playoff field: Michigan, Daytona and Darlington.

The NASCAR playoffs consist of 16 drivers — the regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers ranked by wins with ties broken by points.

With the top seven drivers in the standings all having at least one victory, the regular-season champion most likely will be one of the winners. Thirteen drivers have won this year, meaning up to three spots could be available on points. 

So who's in, who's on the bubble and who is at win-at-all-costs?

Those 13 drivers with wins who are in: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Austin Dillon.

The bubble changed drastically with Dillon's victory as now at most just three spots — not four as prior to the Richmond race — could be available to winless drivers. Both Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain fell below the cutline while Bubba Wallace moved to the good side of being one of the three winless drivers with the most points.

So let's get to the points:

There are five winless drivers who would be battling for the current three spots available solely on points.

Martin Truex Jr. has a 78-point edge on the cutline (currently Buescher and Chastain), with 60 points on Ty Gibbs, who is