My first bet: Early picks for AFC, NFC championship games - ESPN

Four teams remain in the quest to get to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the divisional round to advance to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs will welcome a familiar foe to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the Buffalo Bills, who topped the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The line for the AFC Championship Game opened at -1 on Sunday night and has continued to creep toward Kansas City.

In the NFC, the Washington Commanders pulled off an upset of the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday behind a spectacular performance from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will travel to face their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who advanced to the championship game with a win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as six-point favorites over the Commanders and the line has moved down a half a point since to -5.5.

Here's a look at where our team thinks you can find values in the early line before they start to move as the week goes on.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

Last week:Ravens (+1) vs. Bills. Line closed at Bills +1.5. Bills won 27-25.

Credit to Buffalo for taking advantage of Baltimore's myriad mistakes, but can you really count on another +3 turnover differential to get you through the AFC Championship game? The Bills were out-gained by 143 total yards to a sloppy Ravens outfit that finished the game with 25 points, 416 total yards and a 70% third down conversion rate. Hanging 30-plus points on the road was definitely a possibility for Baltimore. And let's not forget the officiating here, which tends to side with Mahomes. Disagree? Since