Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2025 NCAA tournament - ESPN

For those rooting for chaos in March Madness, picking upsets in the opening round can be an enticing proposition.

But which double-digit seeds actually have a chance to pull it off?

In 12 of the past 13 NCAA tournaments, a First Four team has advanced to the second round. And 11 seeds are catching up with 12 seeds in their historical upset rates.

To find this year's potential candidates, we consulted ESPN's BPI projections to identify the 10 matchups with the highest probabilities of an upset — just keep in mind that probability does not mean predictability when filling out your brackets.

Note: Because two No. 6 vs. No. 11 games are still to be determined by the outcomes of First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.

Upset chance: 55%
Potential matchup: 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday

The percentage might come as a surprise, but as we mentioned earlier, a First Four team has gone on to win a first-round game in 12 of 13 tournaments. So why not the controversial «last team in» Carolina?

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The Heels have won eight of their past 10 games — with both losses coming to Duke — not coincidentally because of the emergence of frontcourt players Ven-Allen Lubin and Jae'Lyn Withers, who have combined to average 24 points and 14 rebounds in this stretch.

If North Carolina survives San Diego State in Tuesday's First Four matchup, a first-round date with Ole Miss could come down to which team's backcourt plays better.

Upset chance: 47%
2 p.m. ET on Friday

Colorado State is coming in hot, winners of 10 straight en route to stealing a tourney bid. And though Memphis is